How much did race drive the Republican Party’s rise in the South?
Between 1964 and the 1990s the South moved from the nation’s most Democratic region to its most Republican. Goldwater carried five Deep South states after voting against the Civil Rights Act; Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina switched parties to support him; and in 1968 Nixon competed with George Wallace for Southern votes. Yet Republicans did not win a majority of the South’s U.S. House seats until 1994, and the shift ran through growing suburbs, migrants from other regions and younger voters as well as older white Democrats.
Racial-backlash interpretation
Many historians argue that Republican strategists deliberately courted white Southerners opposed to federal civil rights enforcement—through Goldwater’s constitutional objections to the 1964 act, Nixon’s positioning on school busing and “law and order,” and later appeals such as Reagan’s invocation of states’ rights at the 1980 Neshoba County Fair in Mississippi—and that this “Southern strategy” remade the party. They cite Kevin Phillips’s The Emerging Republican Majority (1969) as a candid statement of the approach.
Economic and suburban interpretation
Other scholars, including the political scientists Byron Shafer and Richard Johnston, find that Republican gains began among middle-class voters in the South’s growing cities and suburbs and tracked economic development and generational change. On this view the realignment was gradual and driven by economics, national defense and, later, religion as much as by race.
Republican defenders
Defenders note that a larger share of congressional Republicans than Democrats voted for the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965, that school desegregation in the South advanced substantially under Nixon, and that the party’s Southern majorities arrived decades later. Some party leaders have also acknowledged fault: in 2005 Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman told the NAACP that some Republicans had given up on Black voters or tried to benefit politically from racial polarization, and that they had been wrong.
Sources
- Landmark Legislation: The Civil Rights Act of 1964 · U.S. Senate Historical Office
- 1964 Presidential Election · The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara

